Neutrosophic soft sets forecasting model for multi-attribute time series

Traditional time series forecasting models mainly assume a clear and definite functional relationship between historical values and current/future values of a dataset. In this paper, we extended current model by generating multi-attribute forecasting rules based on consideration of combining multiple related variables. In this model, neutrosophic soft sets (NSSs) are employed to represent historical statues of several closely related attributes in stock market such as volumes, stock market index and daily amplitudes

Research on the evolution of innovation behavior of new generation entrepreneurs in different scenarios

Innovation of new generation entrepreneurs is crucial to the development of a country. Empirical research method can analyze the history and current situation, but it is difficult to reflect the dynamic process and evolution trend under different scenarios. In this paper, we adopt computational experiment method to model the decision-making process of new generation entrepreneurs. Multi-agent evolution model is constructed to simulate individual behavior of different types of new generation entrepreneurs under different scenarios. By the comparison of different results, it analyses the evolutionary rules of innovation behaviors and explores guidance policies to promote entrepreneurs’ innovation behavior and achieve better innovation performance. The experimental results show that although internal elements such as individual’s innovative spirit, innovative ability and cognition of social capital determine the innovation intention, the capital, technology and talent conditions are also very important for innovation implementation. New generation entrepreneurs with different risk preferences should objectively evaluate and treat innovation risks according to their own characteristics. This helps to reduce the negative impact of innovation risk on continuous innovation. Meanwhile, government should pay attention to establishing risk guarantee mechanism such as innovation insurance fund to promote the innovation of new generation entrepreneurs. First published online 17 April 202

Tumor Biology and Immune Infiltration Define Primary Liver Cancer Subsets Linked to Overall Survival After Immunotherapy

Primary liver cancer is a rising cause of cancer deaths in the US. Although immunotherapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors induces a potent response in a subset of patients, response rates vary among individuals. Predicting which patients will respond to immune checkpoint inhibitors is of great interest in the field. In a retrospective arm of the National Cancer Institute Cancers of the Liver: Accelerating Research of Immunotherapy by a Transdisciplinary Network (NCI-CLARITY) study, we use archived formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded samples to profile the transcriptome and genomic alterations among 86 hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma patients prior to and following immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment. Using supervised and unsupervised approaches, we identify stable molecular subtypes linked to overall survival and distinguished by two axes of aggressive tumor biology and microenvironmental features. Moreover, molecular responses to immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment differ between subtypes. Thus, patients with heterogeneous liver cancer may be stratified by molecular status indicative of treatment response to immune checkpoint inhibitors

Research on the Evolutionary Path of Eco-Conservation and High-Quality Development in the Yellow River Basin Based on an Agent-Based Model

The high-quality economic and social development of the Yellow River Basin is a combined system comprising the coordinated development of “economy–resources–environment–society”, with resources and the ecological environment bearing capacity as the constraints, and green innovative development as the driving force. Based on the systematic analysis of the structural dimensions of the composite system, this paper uses the balanced indicators and their coordinated development effectiveness to describe the development quality of the macro-composite system. In order to reveal the mechanism of the evolutionary path of the macro system, the resource- and environment-bearing capacity, regional high-quality development potential, regional innovation capacity, and high-quality development guarantee capacity are adopted as the main attributes and decision-making basis of the autonomous agents. The simulation results show that, under the existing development model, the economic development of all of the provinces in the Yellow River Basin will be constrained by resources and the environment. However, different policy scenarios significantly affect the evolutionary trends of economic development, resource consumption, and the environmental pollution situation. The mechanisms to overcome the bottleneck of the resource and ecological constraints are different for these policies, and the effects of the same policy in different provinces are also not the same

A Two-Factor Autoregressive Moving Average Model Based on Fuzzy Fluctuation Logical Relationships

Many of the existing autoregressive moving average (ARMA) forecast models are based on one main factor. In this paper, we proposed a new two-factor first-order ARMA forecast model based on fuzzy fluctuation logical relationships of both a main factor and a secondary factor of a historical training time series. Firstly, we generated a fluctuation time series (FTS) for two factors by calculating the difference of each data point with its previous day, then finding the absolute means of the two FTSs. We then constructed a fuzzy fluctuation time series (FFTS) according to the defined linguistic sets. The next step was establishing fuzzy fluctuation logical relation groups (FFLRGs) for a two-factor first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model and forecasting the training data with the AR(1) model. Then we built FFLRGs for a two-factor first-order autoregressive moving average (ARMA(1,m)) model. Lastly, we forecasted test data with the ARMA(1,m) model. To illustrate the performance of our model, we used real Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and Dow Jones datasets as a secondary factor to forecast TAIEX. The experiment results indicate that the proposed two-factor fluctuation ARMA method outperformed the one-factor method based on real historic data. The secondary factor may have some effects on the main factor and thereby impact the forecasting results. Using fuzzified fluctuations rather than fuzzified real data could avoid the influence of extreme values in historic data, which performs negatively while forecasting. To verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the model, we also employed our method to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI) from 2001 to 2015 and the international gold price from 2000 to 2010

Ethical Risk Factors and Mechanisms in Artificial Intelligence Decision Making

While artificial intelligence (AI) technology can enhance social wellbeing and progress, it also generates ethical decision-making dilemmas such as algorithmic discrimination, data bias, and unclear accountability. In this paper, we identify the ethical risk factors of AI decision making from the perspective of qualitative research, construct a risk-factor model of AI decision making ethical risks using rooting theory, and explore the mechanisms of interaction between risks through system dynamics, based on which risk management strategies are proposed. We find that technological uncertainty, incomplete data, and management errors are the main sources of ethical risks in AI decision making and that the intervention of risk governance elements can effectively block the social risks arising from algorithmic, technological, and data risks. Accordingly, we propose strategies for the governance of ethical risks in AI decision making from the perspectives of management, research, and development

Forecasting Based on High-Order Fuzzy-Fluctuation Trends and Particle Swarm Optimization Machine Learning

Most existing fuzzy forecasting models partition historical training time series into fuzzy time series and build fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups to generate forecasting rules. The determination process of intervals is complex and uncertain. In this paper, we present a novel fuzzy forecasting model based on high-order fuzzy-fluctuation trends and the fuzzy-fluctuation logical relationships of the training time series. Firstly, we compare each piece of data with the data of theprevious day in a historical training time series to generate a new fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). Then, we fuzzify the FTTS into a fuzzy-fluctuation time series (FFTS) according to the up, equal, or down range and orientation of the fluctuations. Since the relationship between historical FFTS and the fluctuation trend of the future is nonlinear, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to estimate the proportions for the lagged variables of the fuzzy AR (n) model. Finally, we use the acquired parameters to forecast future fluctuations. In order to compare the performance of the proposed model with that of the other models, we apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) time series datasets. The experimental results and the comparison results show that the proposed method can be successfully applied in stock market forecasting or similarkinds of time series. We also apply the proposed method to forecast Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI) and DAX30 index to verify its effectiveness and universality